Systems simulation has been around for several decades and has proven successful in mainly manufacturing environments and other applications such as military weaponry tactics. In the last decades it has also been proven successful in healthcare systems around to world to test different triage procedures and reduce patient waiting times. This powerful tool provides analysts with the ability to look into the future and evaluate status quo at any given point in time and using variances as estimators instead of deterministic “rule-of-thumb’ indicators such as historical averages. This strategic ability is the basis for making important decisions in terms of capital investment, process re-engineering and marketing policies.
But how can you sell the idea of investing on this tool in white-collar/service industries? If you are familiar with simulation you know that the textbook example of using simulation in a service industry is banking. However, there are many service industries with different business processes and functions. Simulation is not a tool that can be used in every industry. An easy way to determine if simulation can be used in your workplace is to determine if your company has the following (not an inclusive list):
a) A service or deliverable that is transformed and where value is added during the process. b) Quantifiable goals such as targeted sales volume, service turnaround targets, etc. c) Basic information technology resources to track input, throughput, and output data. d) Different resources (human, technological) with defined tasks and responsibilities and that add value to the entity. These resources should follow structured activities each with an estimated processing time.
e) Traceable costs that can be associated to the entity.
Possibly, the hardest part of using simulation in a service industry is the human factor. Machines are programmed to perform at a specified rate of time. Humans, on the other hand, act based on multiple stochastic factors and have independent decision-making abilities. This makes humans very hard to predict in terms of decisions and processing times. Therefore, we can only estimate human activity by using:
a) Conditional probability, which allows the analyst to estimate decision making based on a series of co-factors and based on the historical response of the resource.
b) Historical data, to use the statistical variance as the allowable human error margin. c) Triangular distribution parameters, when data is not available to estimate the historical probability distribution based on the worst, most likely and best case scenario. This methodology can be used in both process and project simulations (PERT) and it is quite useful. Another approach is to replace the Triangular for the Beta distribution for a more accurate approach as per Law and Kelton (1991).
In a recent simulation project I worked on, I had the chance to test Process Simulator 2009 by ProModel. I found this application quite useful and user-friendly. It uses MS Visio as a liaison to import process models and add simulation properties to them. One attribute that I found quite appropriate for service industries is the use of hierarchical modeling. This allows breaking the process into sub models to allow for a more detailed study.
Process simulator has other features that are useful for service industry studies. These include a scheduling tool for staff resources, cost accumulation properties for entities, multiple scenario management, workflow animation and pre-formatted output metrics and charts. The software allows exporting data for further independent analysis. However, the pre-formatted output metrics and charts are quite useful to analyze resource utilization, entities’ average states, cycle times, throughput volume, etc.
So how can we effectively use this output data to make business decisions in the service industry? First of all, remember that the indicators you are looking for are aligned with your corporate strategies and KPI’s. Examples of output analysis include:
a) Sensitivity Analysis: This encompasses evaluating different scenarios. The “Scenarios” tool of Process Simulator makes sensitivity analysis easier. It is important to identify how the system responds to these different scenarios so that a proper risk assessment and management principles are established. Sensitivity analysis will provide the analyst with an insight of the system’s resilience and will help determine the factors of a failing system. When performing these ‘what if’ scenarios, be wary to identify what are the effects of these scenarios in terms of cost, resource utilization, cycle time and volume.
b) Resource Management: Simulation will allow the analysis of current of future re-sourcing strategies, evaluate their utilization and identify possible bottleneck or excess idle situation. Using the scenario properties of the application, the simulation can be run for different resource settings and average resource usage cost can be estimated.
c) Costing and Pricing: Simulation will aid the analyst with determining or tracing the cost amount of an entity (service or similar deliverable). This can be used for budgeting purposes, to complement managerial accounting estimates, or as a base to price a service provided.
d) ROI - Capital Investments: One of the most important selling points of simulation is to replace costly pilot implementations of capital investments (in particular when investing in information technology solutions). Simulation can provide the estimated impact of a pilot implementation; however it has the downfall that appropriate feedback is not collected. Therefore, it might not be suggested to use simulation for iterative technology design methods.
e) Budgeting: By analyzing throughput volumes and average unit costs, simulation can be a complementary tool for budgeting.
f) Long term strategic planning. By using all of the above examples, simulation can be a powerful tool to look into the long term operation and simulate the effects of price increases or inflation, scarcity of resources, and different marketing strategies (aggressive sales, niche market, etc). That broad perspective of comparing costs/benefits, resource needs, assessing feasibility, properly managing the risk identified, identifying feedback loops (cause/effect), and steering the organization’s operation into the established vision/mission will be greatly incremented by using simulation as a complementary strategic management tool.
It is important to remember that simulation is undertaken on a fully ideal or ‘vacuum’ environment. Therefore it is critical to establish the goal, scope, assumptions, constraints and limitations of every simulation study. After all, simulation is nothing else more than an “estimate”. Be wary of focusing too much on the details of the simulation and try to keep a holistic mindset. Always keep the ‘Big Picture’ in mind as suggested by P.Senge. My advise, have fun while you simulate. Think of simulation as your own RPG videogame where you get to be the master of your universe (sort of as in SimCity). Check out the free trial of Process Simulator 2009 and assess if simulation is appropriate for your workplace. Discuss the benefits of simulation with your management.
Good Luck!
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(r) ProModel Corporation